FNUS73 KDTX 231345
FWSDTX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MALLARD HEAD...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
945 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EDT ON JULY 23.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP APPRECIABLY THIS AFTERNOON AS GOOD MIXING OCCURS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ADVANCES ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93-98.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29 TO 31 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 11100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...2600).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........52  50  48  46  47  48
WEATHER COV.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............92  95  96  96  96  95
RH..............39  37  36  36  37  37
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..14  15  16  16  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.2 4.9 4.6 5.0 8.0 11
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   5
VRATE (KT-FT)...140013001200130019002600

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 7 TO
                    12 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 14
                    MPH BY LATE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...1000).

$$
FORECASTER...KURIMSKI
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120723.MALLA.01/DTX