FNUS75 KGJT 231519
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSH CREEK...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
919 AM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0844 MDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TERRAIN NEAR THE FIRE SITE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT WETTING RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER THE FIRE SITE...BUT IF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS THAT FORM AS WELL
AND MAY BE FELT FROM STORMS NEAR AND AT A DISTANCE FROM THE FIRE.
THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN REFORM AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER MIXING MAY ALLOW THESE WINDS TO BRIEFLY
OVER-RIDE THE TERRAIN PATTERNS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS BECOMING UPSLOPE BY MID MORNING THEN
                    MAINLY UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 8 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2200 THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE BY 1900 THEN DOWNVALLEY
                    AT 3 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH MID EVENING THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79 TO 82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE BY MID MORNING THEN UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 8
                    MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO FAIR
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DEZARAE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120723.BRUSH.02/GJT