FNUS75 KGJT 240103
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSH CREEK...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
703 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1824 MDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME DRYING IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE BURN SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRYING WILL BE MORE
EVIDENT...WITH A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

***FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR AROUND 7800 FEET IN ELEVATION***


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%)...DECREASING CLOUDS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 2200. THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
                    DECREASING LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS UNTIL AROUND
                    2200. THESE OUTFLOWS WILL BE VARIABLE...
                    POSSIBLY ERRATIC AT TIMES WITH WINDS 15-20 MPH
                    AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. BY AROUND 2200...WINDS
                    WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BETTER MIXING NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.


.TUESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%) IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-12
                    MPH AFTER 1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR AROUND MIDDAY.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%)...BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%) BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........57-62%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BETTER MIXING NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DEZARAE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120723.BRUSH.03/GJT