FNUS75 KGJT 240152
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR POWELL COMPLEX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
752 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1735 MDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME DRYING IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE EVENING. HOWEVER THE BURN SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYING WILL BECOME MORE
EVIDENT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THEREFORE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

.TUESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    4-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    4-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...SID HALL FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120723.POWEL.01/GJT