FNUS75 KRIW 231830
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PILGRIM FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1230 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1205 MDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE BURN
AREA TODAY...INCREASING THE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BRINGING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE THE STORMS TO
BE LIKELY AFTER 1400 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE BURN AREA MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
DUE TO THE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...WITH MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MCDONALD

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED TO
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (82500 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (83000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (32500
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
                    THE DAY...PRIMARILY FROM 0900 TO 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 0900.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-7200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (38600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (108400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MCDONALD
REQUESTED BY...CLEMENT
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120723.PILGR.01/RIW