FNUS75 KGJT 242128
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR POWELL COMPLEX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1440 MDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A DISTINCT DOWNTURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FIRE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONLY A FEW BUILDUPS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THE THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO AFTERNOON MIXING WILL WANT TO
TURN RIDGE TOP WINDS TO THIS DIRECTION...HOWEVER TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS MAY DOMINATE UNDER THIS FLOW. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE MOVING IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE FELT
ACROSS THE BURN SITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S IN THE AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 60 OVERNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80 TO 85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS AT 3 TO 8 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD TO VERY
                    GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53 TO 58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH
                    AROUND SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 MPH...BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    OVERNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS MAY REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 10 MPH OR
                    LESS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RIDGE TOP WINDS
                    FROM THE NORTH AT 7 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS. LOWS 54-59. HIGHS 83-88.
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LOWS 57-61. HIGHS 81-85. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH
MID MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...SID HALL FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120724.POWEL.01/GJT