FNUS73 KAPX 251219 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR PERRY RD MOP UP...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 819 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON JULY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WAY INTO THE REGION. THE EDGE OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BURN SITE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 1/2 TO 3 HOURS. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE THREAT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2600-3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....PDS PDS PDS PDS WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW TEMP............73 75 76 76 RH..............59 58 58 60 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......700 600 400 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 66. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....PDS PDS DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............76 75 75 73 71 70 69 68 68 67 67 67 RH..............62 66 69 73 81 84 87 93 93 97 93 93 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW W W W W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 SMOKE DISP......200 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120725.PERRY.01/APX