FNUS73 KUNR 260108
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
708 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1852 MDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN THE BURN AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE WILL LIKELY REACH
THE BURN AREA AROUND 800 PM MDT...AND SHOULD BE PAST THE AREA BY
1000 PM MDT. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE BURN AREA. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND 1000 PM MDT.
TEMPERATURE.........79 AT REQUEST...MIN 58.
RH..................42 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MAX 80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 12 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AND
                    POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WITH THE THUNDER-
                    STORM PASSAGE...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    5 TO 10 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 22 MPH BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 12
                    MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY EARLY...THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 89.
RH..................MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 TO 12 MPH...WITH A TENDENCY
                    TOWARD WESTERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11300 TO 12300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS STOVER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120725.FALLS.02/UNR