FNUS75 KPUB 011020
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
INTO COLORADO...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
THREATENING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BURN SCAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AND
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE DIFFERENCE TODAY AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
START A BIT LATER...AND WITH LESS COVERAGE.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BURN
SCAR ON MONDAY MAKES FOR SATURATED...LOOSE GROUND...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY TO ONCE AGAIN CREATE FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. CLOSE MONITORING OF THE SCAR FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.

--- THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ---

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 11500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 0900.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (57 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57F.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 3 UNTIL 0300...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (49 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH THROUGH 0800...
                    THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1600.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...MOORE
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MASTERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120731.WALDO.01/PUB