FNUS75 KRIW 311653
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR EMMA MATILDA...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1053 AM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1020 MDT ON JULY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE FIRE TODAY
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS THE SURFACE HEATS.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALOFT BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY EARLY ON...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DRY AND WILL
THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY WET LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING SOME THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE INTO THE NIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LESS COVERAGE AND A LOWER
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WITH THESE STORMS. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...GUSTING TO 16 MPH AFTER
                    1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    ISOLATED AFTER 2100
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-77 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.12 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...GUSTING TO 18 MPH AFTER
                    1100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 15
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WEST WINDS BECOMING WESTSOUTHWEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...TIDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120731.EMMAM.01/RIW