FNUS75 KRIW 312014
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUDDY CREEK  2...SHF-NZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
214 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1346 MDT ON JULY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL BE DRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRANSITION TO
WET. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE LATE INTO THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A BIT DRIER AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE WEST AT RIDGE TOP WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...RAISING THE FIRE DANGER DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AND ALONG WITH IT...AND A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-64.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-41 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.FRIDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...CDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120731.MUDDY.01/RIW