FNUS75 KBYZ 020351
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST SARPY...BIA CROW AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
951 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2126 MDT ON AUGUST 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO 18
MPH WILL TURN WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT WEST WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FIRES DURING THE DAYTIME.
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE FIRE COMPLEX THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. LOOK FOR A
SHARP CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWAHT. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. BT


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-95.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING
                    TO THE WEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE.
CWR.................18 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
MAX HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 IN THE EARLY EVENING TURNING SHARPLY TO
                    THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
                    POSSIBLE.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................21 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST .
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TESAR
REQUESTED BY...RANDY PRETTY ON TOP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120801.EASTS.02/BYZ