FNUS75 KMSO 011244
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS POINT FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
644 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0630 MDT ON AUGUST 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL CREATE BREEZY WINDS AND POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FIRE...

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FIRE TODAY
AND WILL IMPACT THE TOP OF THE FIRE WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 15
MPH. WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WINDS AT RIDGETOP
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FURTHER DOWN THE ON THE FIRE THEY WILL BE
SHELTERED FROM THESE WINDS AND WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FIRE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE AROUND NOON WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MIXING DOWN THAT DRAINAGE AT THE BASE OF THE FIRE.
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE SOME
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS. CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WILL BE LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-9 WITH GUSTS TO 15 AT THE TOP
                    OF THE FIRE. UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH AT THE BASE.
MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-9 MPH AT THE TOP OF THE FIRE.
                    WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH AFTER SUNSET
                    AT THE BASE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7-8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
                    INCREASING TO 14-18 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...WARREN APPELHANS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120801.FALLS.01/MSO