FNUS75 KMSO 020102
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH ALDER FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
702 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1834 MDT ON AUGUST 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
MONTANA TODAY. THE FIRE LOCATION MAKES IT VULNERABLE TO INCREASING
WEST WINDS...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DESPITE
HEAVY TIMBER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE DRY TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH ALDER FIRE. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND ELEVATED HUMIDITIES TO THE FIRE SITE. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
BACK INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 4-8 MPH BECOMING WEST 8-15 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
                    WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING. BECOMING NORTHWEST 4-8 AFTER DARK.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........BECOMING WEST 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
                    5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MSJ
REQUESTED BY...LOOKOUT ALDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120801.SOUTH.01/MSO