FNUS73 KDTX 021049 FWSDTX SPOT FORECAST FOR JOCKS CREEK...MDNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 649 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON AUGUST 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A LINGERING A CHANCE OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...RANGING IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INTO SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE AREA...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RISE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT BY SATURDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL BY NOON THEN INCREASING TO 8500 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...1000). TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........40 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 52 54 56 WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............73 78 82 84 85 87 88 88 88 88 85 RH..............68 59 53 50 49 47 45 43 42 46 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.9 6.7 8.3 8.8 6.7 3.5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 VRATE (KT-FT)...100 100 200 300 300 400 700 900 1000700 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENTILATION RATE....POOR (MIN...0). TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........57 51 47 45 48 51 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............82 78 75 73 71 70 RH..............59 69 74 78 82 87 20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW W N NE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 3 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..W 5 SW 4 SW 3 W 3 N 4 NE 5 EYE LEVEL WIND.. 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....800 BLW100 200 300 300 400 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 VRATE (KT-FT)...100 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...GURNEY REQUESTED BY...R MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120802.JOCKS.01/DTX