FNUS73 KSGF 021320 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR POTATO CAVE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 820 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0808 CDT ON AUGUST 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AREA OF THE FIRE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...BUT MAY SHIFT RAPIDLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FIRE REGION...ERRATIC WINDS WITH HIGH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES...AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S BY THIS AFTERNOON. RH PERCENTAGES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN RESPONSE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83 AT REQUEST...MAX 99. MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 37 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NO LARGE SCALE SHIFTS. WINDS MAY SHIFT LOCALLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY FORM LATER TODAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP....40 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT REQUEST...MAX 6. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT REQUEST...MAXIMUM 700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH. TIME (CDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 87 93 96 99 RH..............70 53 44 39 37 20 FT WIND......SE 3 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....300 600 600 600 500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 6 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 75. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 74 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............96 90 84 82 80 78 RH..............40 48 60 65 70 73 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 5 S 4 S 3 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....900 800 300 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 15 S 13 SW 8 SW 6 SW 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 6 6 6 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 99. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 34 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NO LARGE SCALE SHIFTS. CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............77 81 89 94 97 99 RH..............76 67 51 43 37 34 20 FT WIND......S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....200 200 500 1400 4400 7800 TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 W 6 W 8 SW 9 SW 12 SW 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 5 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 76. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 53 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............97 91 85 82 81 79 78 81 89 94 97 98 RH..............36 43 53 59 64 69 71 64 50 42 38 36 20 FT WIND......S 4 S 3 S 4 S 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....6700 3500 200 BLW100 400 500 400 700 1600 2800 4600 5900 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16 SW 16 SW 15 W 13 W 10 W 9 W 9 W 10 W 13 W 15 W 16 W 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BOXELL REQUESTED BY...RYAN KINGSLEY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120802.POTAT.01/SGF