FNUS75 KCYS 031857
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS FIRE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1257 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1218 MDT ON AUGUST 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NATRONA COUNTY AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTH AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT
HOURS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKER ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA.  SKIES MAY TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH THROUGH AROUND 4 PM. THEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE
                    WITH NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    35 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 11000 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH...THEN BECOMING NORTH
                    AT 20 MPH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (94900-323500 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER AROUND
                    9 PM...THEN DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN DECREASING TO 3 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT IN THE EVENING BECOMING FAIR AFTER FRONTAL
                    PASSAGE.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (34600-123000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...FINCH
REQUESTED BY...KELLY FISCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120803.FERRI.01/CYS