FNUS72 KILM 031257 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR LEAMON...TNC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 857 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NEAR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE LEAMON FIRE SITE DI EXPECT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER HEAD BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING RAIN AT OR NEAR THE FIRE SITE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 300 PM...AFTER WHICH MOST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND OF THE FIRE SITE ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3900-4900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-54279 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............30 23 24 24 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................87 89 90 88 RH..................62 57 56 60 20 FT WIND..........S 4 S 5 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........2600 4400 4900 3900 TRANSPORT WIND......SW 8 S 9 S 10 S 9 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...20 41 51 37 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-1400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH LATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-40480 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............24 24 26 28 31 35 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC TEMP................87 82 80 78 77 76 RH..................63 74 83 89 93 96 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 6 S 3 S 2 S 1 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........3200 1600 1000 1100 1400 1000 TRANSPORT WIND......S 13 S 12 S 7 S 0 S 13 S 0 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...40 18 7 0 18 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5600-6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (919-41285 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (60949-84295 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............40 45 47 48 48 49 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................75 76 82 86 88 88 RH..................100 97 76 64 60 61 20 FT WIND..........S 1 S 2 S 4 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)........800 900 1400 3600 5700 6100 TRANSPORT WIND......S 1 S 7 S 8 S 12 S 10 S 14 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1 6 11 41 61 84 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120803.LEAMO.01/ILM