FNUS73 KLBF 031736 FWSLBF SPOT FORECAST FOR KEITH COUNTY FIRE COMPLEX...NEMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1111 MDT ON AUGUST 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WINDS ACROSS KEITH COUNTY SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST...ROUGHLY FROM SYDNEY TO ALLIANCE TO PINE RIDGE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE FORECASTED LOCATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING WILL CAUSE VERY DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF KEITH COUNTY MAY STAY MORE HUMID AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR MINIMUM VALUES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCATIONS THAT GET UNDER A MAIN STORM COULD GET SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE CHANCES FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS COULD MEAN FURTHER CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING START FIRES THIS EVENING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98. MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......15200-16900 FT AGL AFTER 1500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT. TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........24 30 41 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............86 95 97 95 RH..............39 23 18 18 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 S 7 EYE LEVEL WIND..15 10 15 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 11 TO 17 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 11 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................3. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW TO HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......15800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 400-1800 FT AGL AFTER 2200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH 20 TO 29 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 16 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 48 47 51 51 51 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............93 80 72 69 66 63 RH..............20 35 51 66 68 70 20 FT WIND......S 8 E 6 NE 7 NE 13 N 13 N 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 15 30 30 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 8 E 6 NE 7 NE 13 N 13 N 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..15 10 15 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....6 6 5 2 2 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 7400-8300 FT AGL AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 21 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........51 43 33 25 21 16 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............61 66 73 78 81 82 RH..............70 52 38 31 26 25 20 FT WIND......N 7 N 8 N 9 N 9 N 8 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..N 7 N 8 N 9 N 9 N 8 N 7 EYE LEVEL WIND..15 15 20 20 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BROOKS REQUESTED BY...BRENT CURTIS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120803.KEITH.01/LBF