FNUS73 KLSX 041706
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PATTERSON MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1206 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1124 CDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING TIMING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
JUST NORTH OF SPOT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. GIVEN TIMING OF THIS FRONT...A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST WHEN
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1500...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 1800...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 96.
RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....AROUND 5 MPH USING ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 11 TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (8971 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 75.
RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AT 10 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 1000...THEN NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 93.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........NORTH WIND 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (9835 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

REQUESTED BY...RYAN KINGSLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120804.PATTE.01/LSX