FNUS73 KUNR 041723
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1101 MDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION. COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. HOWEVER...TERRAIN INFLUENCE AT THE FIRE WILL TEND TO
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...WITH AFTERNOON MIXING POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...NORTHWEST GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 TO 9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST AROUND 5 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 TO 10800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...JC
REQUESTED BY...BK 331
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120804.BEARG.01/UNR