FNUS75 KCYS 052218
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
418 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1548 MDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT THE BURN SITE...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL HUMIDITY RECOVERY AROUND 40
PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTER 1100
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AFTER 1300. LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE BURN SITE WILL
DECREASE AFTER 1900.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........8 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH THROUGH
                    1900.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 19 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (215400-229100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61 TO 63.
MAX HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 3
                    TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 5 AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (1800-103400 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4 TO 6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 14 MPH AFTER 1100. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (61500-185800 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...MAZUR
REQUESTED BY...KELLY FISCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120805.FERRI.01/CYS