FNUS76 KMFR 072257
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK FIRE...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
357 PM PDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1519 PDT ON AUGUST 07. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMPETE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY 
CIRCULATION IN TERMS OF WINDS DIRECTION AND SMOKE DISPERSION OVER 
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. VALLEY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE FIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT,
AS DOWN SLOPE AND DOWN VALLEY WINDS ALIGN WITH THE WINDS ALOFT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO SOUTH WINDS. THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS MAY CONTINUE. HOWEVER, IT THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE OF A FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTH WINDS FROM SURFACING AND MIXING HEIGHTS 
SOMEWHAT CAPPED IN COMPARISON TO TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
WIND DIRECTION IS TRICKY IN THIS FIRE LOCATION DUE TO VERY COMPLEX
TERRAIN CONFIGURATION. 


.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 90. 
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 21 PERCENT. 
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2-4 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL. 
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH UP TO 6000 FT MSL, THEN
                    SOUTH 15-25 MPH. 
LAL.................1. 
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH.


.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 55. 
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 67 PERCENT. 
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DIMINISHING AND BECOMING DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST 1-3 
                    MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL LATE EVENING. 
MIXING WINDS........BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 MPH, THEN SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. 
LAL.................1. 
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 MPH, THEN SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. 


.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 87. 
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 23 PERCENT. 
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0-2 MPH, THEN SOUTHWEST 1-3 MPH, BECOMING
                    WEST 1-3 MPH AFTERNOON, AND THEN NORTHWEST 2-4 
                    MPH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL OR LESS EARLY, BECOMING 2000 FT AGL LATE 
                    MORNING, THEN 4500 FT AGL AFTERNOON. 
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 1-3 MPH,
                    BECOMING WEST 5-10 MPH AFTERNOON, AND THEN 
                    NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1. 
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 1-3 MPH,
                    BECOMING WEST 5-10 MPH AFTERNOON, AND THEN 
                    NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 


$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...TIFFANY MANGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120807.LICKF.01/MFR