FNUS75 KPIH 080056
FWSPIH

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUSTANG...ADELL IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
656 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1745 MDT ON AUGUST 07. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HELPED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL TOP THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING DRIVING THE
RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE FIRE AREA (BREAK DOWN OF THE 500MB RIDGE).
AT THE SAME TIME...AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
NEVADA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
WORKING INTO THE FIRE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 1500-1800 MDT. AN 
UPPER JET POSITIONED NORTH OF FIRE WILL ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE 
MODERATE TO STRONG CELLS WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY...THUS 
YOU SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. 
AS FOR THE INVERSION...LOOKING AT SURROUNDING OBSERVATION SITES 
ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THE TOP OF THE 
INVERSION/THERMAL BELT WILL LIKELY FALL NEAR 7600 FT MSL TONIGHT. 
THE INVERSION BROKE TUESDAY MORNING AT AROUND 10AM MDT. THE MODEL 
SUGGESTS THAT WITH AN INFLUX OF COOLER TEMPERATURES YOU SHOULD 
SEE A DEEPER INVERSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT (APPROXIMATELY 9000 FT MSL)
AND CONSEQUENTLY BREAKING LATER IN THE MORNING THURSDAY MORNING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
                    SHOWERS...DIMINISHING AFTER 2200 MDT AND 
                    BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-67. 
MAX HUMIDITY........33-43 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH
                    THIS EVENING...DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS OF 3 TO 7 MPH BELOW 
                    7500 FT MSL WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
                    ABOVE 7500 FEET MSL SUSTAINED AS STRONG AS 15 
                    TO 20 MPH. 
CWR.................0 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........5. 
LAL.................1. 

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING 
                    CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-90. 
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/SOUTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    UP TO 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS TO
                    45 MPH NEAR ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. 
CWR.................18 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........5. 
LAL.................1...THEN 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING
                    CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63. 
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN
                    DECREASING TO 3 TO 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 
                    BECOMING VARIABLE BY MORNING. 
CWR.................9 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........5. 
LAL.................4 IN THE EVENING...THEN 1 OVERNIGHT. 

$$
FORECASTER...HUSTON
REQUESTED BY...MUSTANG IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120807.MUSTA.01/PIH