FNUS75 KCYS 091012
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS FIRE...BLM HDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
412 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2056 MDT ON AUGUST 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THAT FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE SITE.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL SPREAD OVER THE FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL
BE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE SITE
AFTER 2 PM. THAT ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH
SOME STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...
                    PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN BUT BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-9 MPH. BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH BY 10 AM WITH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11900 FT AGL IN THE EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (181000 KNOT-FT) BY LATE MORNING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........42-48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY 4-7 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE EVENING.
LAO.................3.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR (900 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 16 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 22
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT (216500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...WEI LAND
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS STRANGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120808.FERRI.01/CYS