FNUS75 KRIW 082011
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP PARK...SHF-NZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT WED AUG 8 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1345 MDT ON AUGUST 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW HUMIDITY ON
THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA...KICKING OFF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE DRY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR HUMIDITY TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
MODERATION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN A
DRY SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 2100 AND 2400...REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGH ABOUT 0300. AND AS ALWAYS...VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-9 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100-11100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (85700 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-63.
MAX HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    9 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BETWEEN
                    2100 AND 0300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    15 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100-11100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 6000-7000 FT
                    AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 14 TO 18 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (88300-111300 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED TO
                    WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-9 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11100-12100 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (103600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (169500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...CDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120808.SHEEP.01/RIW