FNUS75 KABQ 091549
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR CERRO DE A...TAOS BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
949 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT MOVED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE
INCLUDING THE FIRE AREA LATER YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER HIGH SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY FLOW BACK OVER THE FIRE AREA LATER TODAY. STORM MOVEMENT
WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY ALTHOUGH SLOW. THE FOOTPRINT OF
WETTING RAIN WOULD BE PRETTY SMALL SO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS IMPACTING THE
FIRE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AGAIN THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT WOULD
BE SMALL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT AND OVER THE
FIRE AREA TODAY SO LOOK FOR SOME WIND VARIABILITY. A MORE
DOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
                       SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                       AFTERNOON.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......30 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78-82.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 20-22 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........EAST/SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING
                       SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                       GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......12500 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 4 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......POOR/31500 KNOT-FT AT 1800 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/26131 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING POOR/26993 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                       AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......20 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52-56.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 50-55 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                       SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                       ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                       THE EVENING.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/31500 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING BECOMING
                       POOR/2000 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR FRIDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                       SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......20 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78-81.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 23-26 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                       WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD/120000 KNOT-FT AT 1500 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...GOOD/92568 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING VERY GOOD/120000 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...50

$$

REQUESTED BY...ROBERT J  MONTOYA
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120809.CERRO.01/ABQ