FNUS75 KCYS 101055
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS FIRE...BLM HDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
455 AM MDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2124 MDT ON AUGUST 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AND SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 MPH OVER THE FIRE SITE
BY LATE MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WEST SURFACE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON SATURDAY THAN LATER TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
                    STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 16 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 23 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT (139600 KNOT-FT) BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
                    MPH.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR (82500 KNOT-FT) BY MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 26
                    MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 19 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (186700 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS STRANGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120809.FERRI.01/CYS