FNUS75 KGJT 100228
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAIL 2...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
828 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1948 MDT ON AUGUST 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TAP TO THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING BY THE FIRE SITE THROUGH
2100 TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME TERRAIN
BASED OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING. THE GENERAL WINDS BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE OUT OF SYNC WITH THE UPVALLEY WIND WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOVING
THROUGH A GAP DOWNVALLEY OF THE FIRE SITE AND MAY ALLOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND TO END UP DOMINATING AT THE FIRE SITE. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WIND FORECAST SO ANY FEEDBACK WOULD BE APPRECIATED. FOR NOW PLACING
A WESTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54 TO 59 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING
                    DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83 TO 88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH THROUGH LATE
                    MORNING BECOMING WEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH BY EARLY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO
                    12300 FT AGL AFTER 1200.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JONES
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120809.TRAIL.01/GJT