FNUS72 KJAX 091306
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CONNER...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON AUGUST 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 1 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....16 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 30
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............84     90     93     93     90
RH..............83     66     54     52     58
20 FT WIND......SW 2   SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1900   3100   3900   4000   3700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5   SW 7   S 7    SW 6   SW 6
LVORI...........3      3      1      2      2
DISPERSION INDX.12     25     34     30     21
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     30     40     30
LAL.............1      2      2      3      3

.TONIGHT...

MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 1 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....17 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
MIX HGT (FT)....3200   2000   1400   1100   800    400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6   W 7    SW 7   SW 6   S 5    S 2
LVORI...........2      3      4      5      6      6
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     20     20     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...SHULER
REQUESTED BY...MARK PLOSKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120809.CONNE.01/JAX