FNUS75 KRIW 091838
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FAN 1...YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1238 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1210 MDT ON AUGUST 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

THE BACK END OF A WEAK WAVE HAS JUST MOVED PAST THE FIRE...CLEARING
SKIES FOR A BIT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW HEATING AT THE SURFACE
TO INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD SUPPLY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH THE
SURFACE HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF THESE ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER TO CREATE A DRY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH RECOVERY WAS POOR
TO MODERATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY EITHER SO RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A
STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD KICK OFF EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONGER ONES WILL ARRIVE IN THE EVENING. STORMS
WILL ALSO BE DRY ON FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IN THE EVENING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 14 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........57-60 PERCENT...25 TO 30 PERCENT AT MID SLOPE.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700-6700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2600-3300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (93900-100000 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    TO 60 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.13 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (95200-131900 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120809.FAN1_.01/RIW