FNUS75 KRIW 091702 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP PARK...SHF-NZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1102 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1042 MDT ON AUGUST 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS A HAINES INDEX OF 6 AND LOW HUMIDITY IS GOING TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND TOMORROW. THAT STATEMENT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...OTHERWISE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS MARGINAL AT THE FIRE SITE TODAY BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS COULD TRAVEL DOZENS OF MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT STORM...CAUSING A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE HAINES INDEX OF 6 THAT IS EXPECTED TO DAY AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW AGAIN TODAY...AT OR NEAR 10 PERCENT. A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...SO STORMS WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL HAVE A FEW WET STORMS MIXED IN TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...ALLEN .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-100 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89. MIN HUMIDITY........9-12 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OVER 50 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 6. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10700-11700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 18 TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (115900-147400 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-90 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-63. MAX HUMIDITY........38-41 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8900-9900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 18 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (147300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR (56500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-86. MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500-11500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 24 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (165600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ALLEN REQUESTED BY...CDC REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120809.SHEEP.01/RIW