FNUS75 KCYS 111054
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR PONDS FIRE...USFS MBF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
454 AM MDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2334 MDT ON AUGUST 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FIRE SITE MID-MORNING TURNING
WINDS INITIALLY WEST BY 8 OR 9 AM. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWEST BY AROUND MIDDAY. WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. WITH THE EARLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD ONLY DIP INTO THE MID
20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING UNTIL 1100...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 TO 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 0800/0900...
                    THEN WEST/NORTHWEST OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BETWEEN 1600 AND
                    1800.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (89400-194300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51 TO 55 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 TO 65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH/NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BECOMING POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
                    (2300-90900 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70 TO 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 TO 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 MPH
                    UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT
                    5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING EXCELLENT (39900-137600 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...TIM DOWNHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120810.PONDS.01/CYS