FNUS75 KRIW 101417
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
817 AM MDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0735 MDT ON AUGUST 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

A PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HEATING UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WILL KICK OFF A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH AFTER 1500 WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO MORE ORGANIZED AND
MORE SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND HAIL AT THE ELEVATION OF THE FIRE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP ANOTHER 10 PERCENT TODAY...PUTTING THE MIN RHS IN THE
LOW TEENS BY THE TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FORM. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE LONG INTO THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH... HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WELL SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY WET OVERNIGHT WITH AS MUCH AS A HALF
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN
ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING SCATTERED
                    AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2...THEN 6 AFTER 1500.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (52500-81400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-73 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2900-3900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (41000-75000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 26 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (71900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (127700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT JONES
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120810.ALPIN.01/RIW