FNUS75 KRIW 101850
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FAN 1...YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1250 PM MDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1208 MDT ON AUGUST 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT BEHIND THIS
FIRST WAVE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND SURFACE
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE
OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RE-ENFORCEMENT ARRIVING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE EVENING...THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING BEYOND SUNSET. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...THE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
WET BY SUNSET WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL DIP DOWN FROM MONTANA WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL
                    SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...MIXED WITH WET THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.9 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (49400-83500 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED WET AND DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-95 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2300-2800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (35500-77300 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-37 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100-8100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (58500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (113700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120810.FAN1_.01/RIW