FNUS75 KRIW 111834
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FAN FIRES...YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1234 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1206 MDT ON AUGUST 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PUSH OF VERY DRY AIR COMING
FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
BACK SIDE OF IT MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE DOWNWARD
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WILL ALSO SQUASH
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER ABOUT 1500 OR SO. RH RECOVERY WILL
BE FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THE
NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300-7300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (45300-91300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4000-5000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (32600-77500 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800-9800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (100600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120811.FANFI.01/RIW