FNUS75 KRIW 111745
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FONTENELLE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1123 MDT ON AUGUST 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A PUSH OF VERY DRY AIR COMING FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT STABILIZES RAPIDLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE BACK SIDE OF IT
MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DOWNWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE STRONGER WINDS TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THERE IS A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WIND AND
LOW HUMIDITY IN THE ZONE JUST SOUTH OF THE FIRE...DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE CRITICAL AREA SOME OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BLEED UP INTO THE FIRE AREA TODAY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900-8900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 26 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (69600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (171800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000-9000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3900-4900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 14
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (155900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (51600 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING
                    TO WEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900-10900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 TO 18 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (36100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (125600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120811.FONTE.01/RIW