FNUS74 KEPZ 121625
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR LOWER ELK...NM-MEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1025 AM MDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0913 MDT ON AUGUST 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION..
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERHEAD BRINGING MORE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SOME BY MONDAY BEHIND AS A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK WITH EVEN A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY NEXT WEEKEND.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10-20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......16300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 KNOTS. VERY GOOD.



.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 11 KNOTS.


.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 7 TO 12 GUST 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 KNOTS. VERY GOOD


$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120812.LOWER.01/EPZ