FNUS75 KBOU 131714 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR TERMAN TOZEY FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1112 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 1200. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE A BIT AROUND 1500 AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1200 THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 10600-11200 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1700..THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-57. MAX HUMIDITY........58-61%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR TERMANTOZE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/13-10 57 5 1 69 33 W 5 5 4 1 NW13 4066 W 9 33051 P 08/13-11 57 5 1 72 30 W 5 5 3 1 NW10 7504 W 9 60817 G 08/13-12 65 17 3 73 30 NW 6 6 3 3 NW 8 10943 NW 9 88582 G 08/13-13 65 17 3 74 29 NW 7 7 3 3 W 7 11036 W 9 86303 G 08/13-14 65 17 3 74 28 W 8 13 3 3 W 7 11130 W 9 84024 G 08/13-15 78 31 10 74 28 W 9 15 3 4 W 8 11223 W 8 81745 G 08/13-16 78 31 10 73 29 W 9 15 3 4 W 9 10956 W 9 88056 G 08/13-17 78 31 10 72 31 NW 9 15 3 4 NW10 10688 NW10 94368 G 08/13-18 71 20 4 71 34 NW 9 14 3 3 NW12 10420 NW12 100680 V 08/13-19 71 20 4 67 39 NW 9 14 3 3 NW13 7113 NW12 68942 G 08/13-20 71 20 4 63 44 W 9 15 4 3 N14 3807 W13 37204 P 08/13-21 71 20 4 61 48 W 9 15 4 3 N14 500 W13 5467 P 08/13-22 71 10 2 59 53 W10 16 4 2 N15 405 W13 4385 P 08/13-23 71 10 2 57 56 W12 17 4 2 N15 311 W12 3303 P 08/14-00 42 0 0 56 59 W12 20 4 1 NW15 216 W12 2221 P 08/14-01 42 0 0 54 61 W13 20 4 1 NW16 208 W13 2241 P 08/14-02 42 0 0 54 60 W13 21 4 1 N17 201 W13 2262 P 08/14-03 42 0 0 53 60 W14 22 4 1 N18 193 W14 2282 P 08/14-04 42 0 0 53 59 W14 22 4 1 N17 186 W14 2224 P 08/14-05 42 0 0 53 57 W14 22 4 1 N16 178 W14 2165 P 08/14-06 9 0 0 53 57 W14 22 4 1 NW16 171 W14 2107 P 08/14-07 9 0 0 55 52 W14 22 4 1 NW17 473 NW14 5946 P 08/14-08 9 0 0 60 41 W13 21 4 1 NW18 776 NW15 9786 P 08/14-09 9 0 0 63 36 W13 21 4 1 NW21 1078 NW15 13625 P 08/14-10 9 0 0 67 31 NW12 12 3 1 NW21 4618 NW15 59759 F 08/14-11 9 0 0 70 28 NW 9 9 4 1 NW20 8230 NW15 106715 V 08/14-12 38 0 0 72 26 NW 8 8 4 1 NW20 11842 NW15 153672 E 08/14-13 38 0 0 74 24 N 6 6 4 1 NW20 12328 NW14 141928 V 08/14-14 38 0 0 75 24 NE 5 5 4 1 NW20 12815 NW12 130184 V 08/14-15 38 0 0 76 24 E 3 3 4 1 NW20 13301 NW10 118440 V 08/14-16 38 0 0 76 24 E 3 3 4 1 NW18 12798 NW 9 108755 V 08/14-17 38 0 0 76 25 E 3 3 4 1 NW17 12296 W 9 99070 G 08/14-18 34 0 0 74 26 SE 3 3 4 1 NW15 11793 W 9 89385 G 08/14-19 34 0 0 72 29 SE 3 3 4 1 W14 7969 W 8 60235 G 08/14-20 34 0 0 69 33 SW 5 5 5 1 W12 4146 W 8 31084 P 08/14-21 34 0 0 66 37 W 6 6 5 1 W10 322 W 7 1934 P 08/14-22 34 0 0 64 40 W 8 8 5 1 W10 267 W 8 1787 P 08/14-23 34 0 0 62 44 W10 10 5 1 W 9 212 W 9 1641 P 08/15-00 37 0 0 59 49 W12 18 5 1 W10 158 W10 1494 P 08/15-01 37 0 0 56 54 W12 12 5 1 W10 157 W10 1421 P 08/15-02 37 0 0 54 58 W10 10 5 1 W12 156 W10 1347 P 08/15-03 37 0 0 53 58 W10 10 5 1 W13 156 W 9 1273 P 08/15-04 37 0 0 53 57 W12 12 5 1 W13 146 W10 1311 P 08/15-05 37 0 0 52 56 W12 20 4 1 W13 137 W12 1350 P 08/15-06 28 0 0 53 53 W13 21 4 1 W12 127 W13 1388 P 08/15-07 28 0 0 54 51 W13 21 4 1 W12 294 NW13 3518 P 08/15-08 28 0 0 58 43 W13 20 4 1 NW10 460 NW14 5647 P 08/15-09 28 0 0 62 37 NW12 18 4 1 NW10 627 NW14 7777 P 08/15-10 28 0 0 66 33 NW10 10 4 1 NW13 4276 NW14 48066 F 08/15-11 28 0 0 68 30 NW 8 8 3 1 NW16 7925 NW14 88356 G 08/15-12 40 10 2 70 28 NW 7 7 3 2 NW17 11575 NW13 128646 V 08/15-13 40 10 2 72 27 NW 7 7 3 2 NW15 12088 NW12 125020 V 08/15-14 40 10 2 73 27 NW 8 8 3 2 NW12 12602 NW12 121395 V 08/15-15 40 10 2 74 26 W 8 8 3 2 N 9 13116 NW10 117770 V 08/15-16 40 10 2 74 26 W 7 7 3 2 NW10 12604 NW10 112224 V 08/15-17 40 10 2 74 26 NW 6 6 4 2 NW12 12093 NW10 106678 V 08/15-18 40 10 2 72 27 NW 5 5 4 2 NW14 11582 NW10 101133 V 08/15-19 40 10 2 70 30 W 5 5 4 2 NW13 7826 NW 8 67812 G 08/15-20 40 10 2 67 34 W 5 5 4 2 NW12 4071 W 6 34491 P 08/15-21 40 10 2 63 39 W 5 5 4 2 NW10 315 W 5 1171 P 08/15-22 40 10 2 61 43 W 6 6 4 2 W 9 283 NW 6 1254 P 08/15-23 40 10 2 59 49 NW 7 7 4 2 W10 250 N 7 1337 P 08/16-00 61 0 0 56 56 NW 8 8 4 1 W13 217 N 8 1420 P 08/16-01 61 0 0 53 63 N 7 7 4 1 W17 277 N 7 1637 P 08/16-02 61 0 0 51 68 N 6 6 3 1 W23 337 NE 7 1854 P 08/16-03 61 0 0 50 69 N 5 5 3 1 W28 396 E 6 2070 P 08/16-04 61 0 0 49 71 NE 5 5 3 1 W28 471 E 6 2218 P 08/16-05 61 0 0 49 71 E 3 3 3 1 W26 545 E 5 2366 P 08/16-06 58 0 0 49 70 E 3 3 3 4 W24 620 E 5 2514 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CAPT MANWARING REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120813.TERMA.01/BOU