FNUS75 KGJT 140903
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST COAL CREEK...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 AM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1710 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE FIRE SITE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
1100. THERE IS A STRONG PROBABILITY THAT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PUSH
THE FIRE AROUND UNPREDICTABLY. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN AND COULD PROVIDE SUPPRESSION
IF ANY CELLS PASS OVER THE FIRE. THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND DRYING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PEAKS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY (THROUGH SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY AND
    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (66600-72500 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1700...THEN BECOMING 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-29200 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH  0900...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 4 TO 7 MPH BY 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (120000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN PHILLIPS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120813.EASTC.01/GJT