FNUS75 KMSO 140243
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEADOW CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
843 PM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1958 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL START OFF TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY BUT ESTABLISH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT BY MIDDAY FOLLOWED SUBSEQUENTLY BY STEADILY INCREASING
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS AND THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY MORNING AND
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRE WILL LIKELY SEE A
WETTING RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP YIELD HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WITH A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING. BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH
                    BY MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$

FORECASTER...DICKERSON
REQUESTED BY...USFS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120813.MEADO.01/MSO