FNUS75 KTWC 131923
FWSTWC

SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAIL...SAN CARLOS AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1223 PM MST MON AUG 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1145 MST ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
NORTH OF THE BURN SITE...HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECTING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO
BEGIN AFTER 1600 WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERWARD AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS AT THE BURN SITE WILL BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEARBY SO OBSERVERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED THURSDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89 TO 94 DEGS.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 18 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 6 TO 11 MPH.
LAL.................4.
CHANCE OF RAIN......30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59 TO 64 DEGS.
MAX HUMIDITY........45 TO 50 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    UP TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
CHANCE OF RAIN......30 PERCENT UNTIL 2300...THEN 0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87 TO 92 DEGS.
MIN HUMIDITY........16 TO 21 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHANCE OF RAIN......0 PERCENT UNTIL 1200...THEN 30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER
REQUESTED BY...DUANE CHAPMAN AFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120813.TRAIL.01/TWC