FNUS75 KRIW 141723
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 AM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0937 MDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE BUTTE CREEK WILDFIRE THROUGH 2100L...

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND EXPECTED GUSTY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON....RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE ACHIEVED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BUTTE CREEK WILDFIRE.
AREAS OF SMOKE REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE A WIND SHIFT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LAVOIE/BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 15 TO 17
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1300L.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    1300.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500-8200 FT AGL
                    BY 1400L.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-51 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL 0500...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH AFTER .
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 1100L.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-29 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20
                    TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    25 MPH AFTER 1100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LAVOIE/BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...MARTHA WILLIAMSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120814.BUTTE.01/RIW