FNUS74 KLZK 151521 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR PERRYFIRE...ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1021 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1015 CDT ON AUGUST 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE DECENT TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THE STATE WILL HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. HOWEVER...WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD HELP MOISTEN VEGETATION SIGNIFICANTLY SO THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN FIRE DANGER LEVELS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........83 AT REQUEST...MAX 91. RH..................61 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 44 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 5400 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 2 MPH AT REQUEST...BECOMING SOUTH AT 5-7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............83 86 88 89 90 90 90 89 RH..............61 54 48 46 45 44 45 46 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 5 5 2 3 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 5 5 4 4 6 6 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 3 3 1 2 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.2 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S SW TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 7 8 9 9 9 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 70. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 2400 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....6. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TEMP............88 86 83 80 78 77 76 75 74 74 73 73 RH..............46 49 56 62 67 70 74 78 80 82 84 85 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 EYE LVL WND GST.2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW S S S S S S S S SW TRANSP WIND SPD.16 15 13 10 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 93. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 7100 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............72 72 76 79 83 86 88 90 91 92 92 91 RH..............87 87 79 70 62 56 52 49 48 47 47 49 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 2 2 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 16 17 16 15 13 13 12 12 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 $$ FORECASTER...55 REQUESTED BY...SCOTT REED TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120815.PERRY.01/LZK