FNUS75 KRIW 151830 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...BRIDGER TETON NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1230 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1155 MDT ON AUGUST 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE SITE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE FIRE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL SLIDE BACK EAST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING A COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...JONES .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 1500L... THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73. MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST-NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL 1600L...THEN WIND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH BY 1800L. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST-NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO NEAR 8000 FT AGL BY 1500L. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1500L. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2200L...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-38. MAX HUMIDITY........88-91 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2100L... THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 7 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST-NORTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH UNTIL 2100L... THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL BY 2100L. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 2100L...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR BY 2100. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BETWEEN 0900L AND 1100L. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67. MIN HUMIDITY........24-27 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 0800L... THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 TO 9 MPH BY 1000. AFTER 1400L...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000L...THEN BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 1300L. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 5000 AGL BY 1500L. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000L...THEN BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 1300L. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING GOOD BY 1500L. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...JONES REQUESTED BY...BUTTE FIRE IC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120815.BUTTE.01/RIW