FNUS75 KGJT 161358
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST COAL CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
758 AM MDT THU AUG 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0629 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS MAKING A SLOW RETURN TO THE WESTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE FIRE SITE...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO
RIDGETOP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THIS DIRECTION AS MIXING
INCREASES BY LATE MORNING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AGAIN WORKS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OR
FROM VIRGA SHOWERS WILL STILL EXIST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AT 7 TO 12 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH AFTER
                    SUNSET. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING AT 5 TO 8
                    MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JERRY CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120816.EASTC.01/GJT