FNUS76 KMFR 170045
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE...OIIMT2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
545 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1643 PDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE SLOPE
DRIVEN THROUGH THE MORNING THEN SWITCHING TO WEST AS IT MIXES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INCIDENT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
TREND TOWARD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIKELY NEAR THE INCIDENT
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND WETTER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL
DOWN.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-28 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS BECOMING UPSLOPE 1-2 MPH AFTER 10 AM
                    THEN WEST 2-4 MPH AFTER 3 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS BECOMING UPSLOPE 2-4 MPH AFTER 10 AM
                    THEN WEST 5-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 13 MPH AFTER
                    3 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-64 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST 2-4 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH-
                    EAST 2-4 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING LOWERING TO 1500 FT
                    AGL OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 13 MPH THROUGH THE
                    EVENING BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3-6 MPH OVERNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...WRIGHT
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120816.BUTTE.01/MFR