FNUS76 KMFR 161818
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR COLD SPRINGS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1118 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1035 PDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT RESULTING THE POTENTIAL OF MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS LOCATION AS WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY. BEWARE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
FROM  THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........AREAS OF SMOKE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MAX HUMIDITY........42-52 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1-3 MPH, BECOMING VARIABLE 0-2 MPH LATE
                    EVENING, THEN DOWNSLOPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST 0-2MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL EARLY, THEN FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS
                    DURING THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5 MPH LATE
                    EVENING, THEN EAST-NORTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5 MPH LATE
                    EVENING, THEN DOWNSLOPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST 5 MPH OR
                    LESS.


.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY, BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
                    AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST 0-2 MPH, BECOMING UPSLOPE 1-3 MPH,
                    THEN NORTHWEST 1-3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 10,000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH, THEN NORTHWEST 5 MPH UP TO 8000
                    FT MSL AND THEN SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH ABOVE THAT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-NORTHEAST 5 MPH EARLY, BECOMING UPSLOPE 5 MPH,
                    THEN NORTHWEST 5 MPH LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1-3 MPH WITH GUSTS 6 MPH IN THE EVENING,
                    BECOMING SOUTH 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS DURING THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    20 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH 5-15 MPH.
CWR.................3 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    20 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH 5-15 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.


$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...DEB SHEPHERD
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120816.COLDS.01/MFR