FNUS76 KMFR 180310
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR COLD SPRINGS...US FORETS SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
810 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1932 PDT ON AUGUST 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...LATEST LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NEAR THE FIRE SITE
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY...BUT
WILL BECOME WETTER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY GUSTY WINDS OF 40MPH HAVE REPORTED TODAY IN THIS STORM
ENVIRONMENT...SO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS
THAT OCCUR NEARBY. IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW WITH EXPECTED STORMS PASSING THROUGH AND NEARBY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD TREND TOMORROW...AND HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE SOUTH WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH OVERNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MORNING UNTIL AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE SOUTH WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE SOUTH WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 7 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
                    AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE SOUTH WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH OVERNIGHT.


$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...KLAMATH FALLS INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120817.COLDS.03/MFR

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