FNUS76 KMFR 172334
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAVA...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
434 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1608 PDT ON AUGUST 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE
AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE SITE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY EVENING BUT WEAK INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...A STABLE
AIR MASS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS THAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST LATE
                    IN THE MORNING THE WEST 2 TO 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................22 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING THEN WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    AROUND 11 PM IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH BECOMING EAST 1 TO 3 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 2 TO 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120817.LAVA_.01/MFR